Saturday, February 27, 2010

財爺說(原曲:月亮說)

財爺說

原曲:月亮說-王菀之

凝望你派錢 傷感沾濕眼睛
豪宅又再升 可惜口袋更清
沒有錢留袋 中產滿是感慨
伸手那拾到往日 美麗的歡笑聲

投地是美景 一炒慶便忘形
錢幣任你拎 升幅點出尾聲
剩我踎樓梯 一倒塌是喪禮
收樓無訂匿卻沒氣力撐到那麼遠

財爺在真可愛 FLOPPY送贈你忍耐
窮人在工不再 課稅暫緩是意外
驀然忘了當初怎會被清袋
紓困幾千始終可以食棵菜
為何遇上稅網偏要避開
點先撐到最後不至被釘蓋

窮人在工不再 春節過後要等待
財爺在真可愛 課稅暫緩是意外
驀然忘了當初怎會被清袋
紓困幾千始終可以食棵菜
為何遇上稅網偏要避開
中產哪處靠岸想到就感慨

扮窮又幫交租幫你付差餉
這世間有幾多貧友可因你歌唱
凝望你背影 傷感沾濕眼睛
豪宅又再升 可惜口袋已清

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

不要驚動阿爺 + 大戶早已預備

兩首未完成作品:

<不要驚動阿爺> (不要驚動愛情)
很想保經濟 所以造低你
寧願用美期 去賺塊樹皮
還未過假期 先偷偷揸貨
迫存款金 再度提升
傳聞暴漲太快 熱錢都走得快
才會  遲遲未入滿貨 說等到四月尾

*錢太過大戶挾得狠 而我學會炒賣
但求來日你醒過來
大戶會被阿爺打瓜!!
還沒有高開別意外 爺教會我等待
待宏調像散水 才去承諾你 拿熊仔去換貨


<大戶早已預備> (上帝早已預備)
*大戶早已預備 美股衝破萬四
即使歐豬籌旗 但卻不似你預期
大戶早已預備 美股我不要亂棄
難得你 又買起 (難得你 又買起)
熊仔你 又要死 (熊仔你 又要死)

---
<大戶早已預備>睇淡版(由"黎番又軌升上@discuss.com.hk"提供)
*大戶早已預備 美股今晚難尾
拉升歐豬無期 大市升別再預期
大戶早已預備 有股即要離棄
撈起了 又跌死 (難得你 又買起)
牛仔佢 又要死 (牛仔佢 又要死)

Sunday, February 7, 2010

10 China Myths for the New Decade

January 28, 2010
10 China Myths for the New Decade
by Derek Scissors, Ph.D.
Backgrounder #2366

Abstract: China's economic growth has been accompanied by growing misinformation about its economy. Contrary to conventional wisdom, China is not leading the world out of a recession, is no longer moving toward a market economy, is not America's banker, and may never surpass the U.S. Heritage Foundation Asia expert Derek Scissors debunks 10 leading myths about the Chinese economy and replaces them with the accurate picture necessary to guide American policy.

The article is too lengthy to include here. Therefore only the ten myths have been included. To read the full article, visit this link.

Myth #1: China is now the leading engine for global growth.

Truth: China detracts from the rest of the world's growth in gross domestic product (GDP).

Myth #2: China could surpass the U.S. as the largest economy in 10 years.

Truth: There is a reasonable chance that China will never surpass the U.S.

Myth #3: China will surpass Japan as the world's second-largest economy in 2010.

Truth: China probably surpassed Japan several years ago.

Myth #4: China is America's banker.

Truth: If there was ever any Chinese financial influence, it is not there now.

Myth #5: The U.S. and China are intensely interdependent--"Chimerica" has emerged.

Truth: China depends far more heavily on the U.S. than the U.S. depends on China.

Myth #6: China's controlled exchange rate is a central factor in the global economy.

Truth: The controlled exchange rate is merely one symptom of a larger problem.

Myth #7: China continues to reform its economy, with perhaps an understandable pause due to the financial crisis.

Truth: China's market reform slowed sharply in 2002 and effectively stopped in 2005.

Myth #8: China is rebalancing toward more domestic consumption.

Truth: The dominance of investment over consumption in driving China's economy is intensifying.

Myth #9: China's greenhouse gas emissions are about the same as America's.

Truth: China's emissions are as much as 25 percent larger, and the gap is widening every day.

Myth #10: China has an official program to substantially cut its carbon emissions.

Truth: The goal is to cut carbon emissions intensity. Actual emissions will soar in the next decade.


盡論中國:地產商看扁溫家寶

蠢咗, post咗"內銀借貸失控 人行突收緊銀根 加準備金半厘 凍資逾 3000億"自己都唔識走鬼. 恆指由當日21,748.60點一路跌到19,665.08點!!

今日又見新文章兩篇, 一篇講阿爺係打唔死地產股嘅, 另一篇講美國的中國經濟研究報告.

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盡論中國:地產商看扁溫家寶
2010年02月07日 Appledaily


「房地產打下去, GDP(國內生產總值)就掉下去了, GDP掉下去,溫總理比我們開發商還急。」在內地政府頻頻出招擠壓房地產泡沫、內房股被爭相看淡之際,北京華遠地產董事長任志強語出驚人,也有網民再度質疑:「溫家寶是人民總理,還是地產商總代理?」
不買上五套不好意思說炒樓

如果 GDP掉下去,溫家寶還可以不急的話,那麼,地方政府的高官們肯定寢食不安,因為 GDP是衡量政績的主要標誌,而房地產成為不少城市 GDP增長的重要引擎,更是不爭的事實。內地去年 GDP增長排名前十位的省分中,重慶 GDP增長 14.9%、廣西增長 13.9%、陝西增長 13.6%,但房地產投資分別增長 25.9%、 29.7%、 23.8%。
國務院多個部委限制房地產開發的措施貌似來勢洶洶,但目的、成效成疑。被稱為「國 11條」、曾引發內房股暴跌的國務院《關於促進房地產市場平穩健康發展的通知》,開宗明義是要「平穩發展」,不是要地價、樓價下跌。地方政府對此心照不宣,因此海南省限制炒樓的標準是:一個身份證只能購五套房!嘖嘖,不買上五套,你都不好意思說炒樓了!
政府約束地產商的撒手鐧,無非是資金供應、土地供應、稅收三板斧,近期最受關注的是銀根收緊。但國家統計局最新發佈的數據顯示,去年內地房地產開發資金來源 5.7萬億元,其中,國內貸款 1.1萬億元,只佔 19%,不及定金及預收款的 1.6萬億元,更不及企業自籌資金 1.8萬億元。
由此可見,無論政府是收緊銀根,還是限制炒樓,這些措施只會在短期抑制炒風、減少成交,但在人民幣升值及通脹升溫的預期下,不會改變內地樓價反覆攀升的趨勢。如果再顧及房地產與 GDP正增長的關係、地產商與地方官員千絲萬縷的關係,就難怪大地產商敢看扁溫家寶、看扁當局連串打壓措施,也就不必再看淡已大幅調整的內房股。

電郵: China@appledaily.com